Saturday 6 October 2018

Whenever the US Dollar strengthens alongside the rise in the US 10 year yield, market analysts' stock refrain is to attribute the same to the rise in yields . But this is not at all so because when yields rise , it only means that there is considerable increase in net sellers of US treasuries and therefore if anything market must be selling and not buying dollars  ! So the real and correct explanation  has to be something else .  The real and correct explanation is that massive net selling in US treasuries, which pushed the 10 year UST yield to 3.20% recently ,  forced the global investors to sell their non dollar profitable investments to cover losses on the US treasuries leading to conversion of non dollar currencies into US dollar resulting in its recent appreciation. Exactly the same thing happened during the taper tantrum in 2013 but was again fallaciously explained then as now  ! This fallacious reasoning of analysts owes itself to the common but correct understanding that higher short term policy rates cause the currency concerned to appreciate ! Typically if the central bank is not behind the curve in tightening, thus credibly assuring the markets of its resolve to keep inflation in check , 10 year yields may not increase at all and if anything, if the central bank is perceived by the markets to be ahead of the curve in its tightening , 10 year yields may actually fall rather than rise ! With this explanation, I hope I have been able to unclutter the clutter !